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Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso

Received: 15 April 2020     Accepted: 7 May 2020     Published: 27 May 2020
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Abstract

Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of "casual" rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.

Published in International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 8, Issue 2)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
Page(s) 27-32
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Rural Community, Sahel, Climate Change, Resilience, Forecast

References
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[2] Sharon E. Nicholson, “Climatic and environmental change in Africa during the last two centuries” CLIMATE RESEARCH Clim Res, Vol. 17: 123–144, 2001
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[4] A. Dai, K. E. Trenberth, and T. R. Karl, “Global Variations in Droughts and Wet Spells: 1900-1995,” Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 25, no. 17, pp. 3367–3370, 1998, doi: 98GL52511 0094-8534/98/98GL-52511$05.0.
[5] Servat E., Paturel J.-E., Kouamé B., Travaglio M., Ouédraogo M., Boyer J.-F., Lubes-Niel H., Fritsh J.-M., Masson J.-M. et Marieu., 1998 “Identification, caracterisation et consequences d’une variabilite hydrologique en Afrique de l’ouest et centrale,” in Wafer Resources Variability in Africa during Ihe XXth CenJury (Proceedings, 1998).
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[7] B. Ibrahim, “Caractérisation des saisons de pluies au Burkina Faso dans un contexte de changement climatique et évaluation des impacts hydrologiques sur le bassin du Nakanbé.,” Doctorat ès Sciences de l’Université Pierre et Marie Curie et de l’Institut International d’Ingénierie de l’Eau et de l’Environnement (2ie) à Ouagadougou, 2012.
[8] J. E. Paturel, E. Servat, M. O. Delattre, and H. Lubes-niel, “Analyse de séries pluviométriques de longue durée en Afrique de l’Ouest et Centrale non sahélienne dans un contexte de variabilité climatique,” Hydrol. Sci. J., vol. 43, no. 6, pp. 937–946, 1998, doi: 10.1080/02626669809492188.
[9] É. Servat, J. E. Paturel, B. Kouamé, J. M. Masson, M. Travaglio, and B. Marieu, “De différents aspects de la variabilité de la pluviométrie en Afrique de l ’ Ouest et Centrale non sahélienne,” Rev. des Sci. l ’ eau/journal Water Sci., vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 363–387, 1999, doi: https://doi.org/10.7202/705356ar.
[10] M. Ouedraogo, “Impact des changements climatiques sur les revenus agricoles au Burkina Faso,” J. Agric. Environ. Int. Dev. -, vol. 106, no. 1, pp. 3–21, 2012.
[11] G. C. Gallopın, “Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity,” Glob. Environ. Chang., vol. 16, no. July, pp. 293–303, 2006, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.004.
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[14] P. Roudier, “Climat et agriculture en Afrique de l ’ Ouest: Quantification de l ’ impact du changement climatique sur les rendements et évaluation de l ’ utilité des prévisions saisonnières To cite this version: HAL Id: tel-00874724,” Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS), 2013.
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Cite This Article
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    Lucien Damiba, Ali Doumounia, Aminata Zeba, Tiéba Nissi Traoré, Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, et al. (2020). Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 8(2), 27-32. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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    ACS Style

    Lucien Damiba; Ali Doumounia; Aminata Zeba; Tiéba Nissi Traoré; Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, et al. Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2020, 8(2), 27-32. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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    AMA Style

    Lucien Damiba, Ali Doumounia, Aminata Zeba, Tiéba Nissi Traoré, Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, et al. Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2020;8(2):27-32. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12,
      author = {Lucien Damiba and Ali Doumounia and Aminata Zeba and Tiéba Nissi Traoré and Cheick Oumar Sawadogo and François Zougmoré},
      title = {Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso},
      journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
      volume = {8},
      number = {2},
      pages = {27-32},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20200802.12},
      abstract = {Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of "casual" rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.},
     year = {2020}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso
    AU  - Lucien Damiba
    AU  - Ali Doumounia
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    AU  - Tiéba Nissi Traoré
    AU  - Cheick Oumar Sawadogo
    AU  - François Zougmoré
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
    T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
    JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
    JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
    SP  - 27
    EP  - 32
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2328-7667
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
    AB  - Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of "casual" rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.
    VL  - 8
    IS  - 2
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

  • Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

  • Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

  • WaterAid, International Program Department, West Africa Regional Learning Centre for Water Resources Management (RLC-WRM), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

  • WaterAid, International Program Department, West Africa Regional Learning Centre for Water Resources Management (RLC-WRM), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

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